Dawning the cover of this week’s Newsweek (as we kind of predicted), Mike Huckabee’s last few days with the press have been tumultuous, and as of noon today, everything seems to indicate this week could be worse than last.
A few noteworthy developments:
First there was the Huffington Post’s piece with Murray Waas unearthing new details in the Wayne Dumond scandal. Then on Saturday, the main Drudge headline ran an AP story of a questionnaire response in 1992. Huckabee implied those afflicted with HIV/AIDS should be quarantined. He also called homosexuality “sinful”. On Sunday he defended himself against both, but didn’t apologize. The Newsweek piece is mostly positive, but it raises some new questions about Huckabee’s past dealings with the tobacco industry. And today, the National Review carries a piece by conservative David Sanders discussing Jackson Stephens’ bankrolling a campaign against Huckabee based on his tax record, along with a diatribe on Huckabee’s foreign policy stances.
Where does all this leave Huckabee?
After reading Drudge’s Saturday headline on how “HUCKABEE WANTED TO QUARANTINE AIDS PATIENTS”, I initially thought, Wow — this is pretty radioactive stuff. Yet now I’m not so sure.
First of all, a 2:1 lead in Iowa against Romney will be hard to dent. Then we have to remember only 100,000 republicans in Iowa will show up to caucus. That number is very low. These 100,000 caucus-goers are hard line republicans. I’m still digging around for data to back this claim, but conservatives’ perceptions on HIV/AIDS and homosexuality aren’t too different than what Huckabee was saying in ‘92 (and stands by today). Huckabee could actually gain support based on his comments. The Newsweek cover / story is a huge plus for Huckabee; anyone who isn’t taking him seriously now is just stupid. He’s bruised at best, but still poised to win Iowa.
I’m on the edge of my seat over the latest polls in IA, NH and SC — if he gets a bump after his toughest week of press yet, he will be the nominee.
At this point, he has everything to lose.
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