Huckabee Watch

“Hello all you happy people. You know what? I’m still going to win Iowa.”

The gloves are coming off, particularly on the Right…

You know you’ve rocked the boat when, as a Republican, you get this kind of rough treatment from Fox News Sunday.

Andrew Sullivan is (unsurprisingly) dismayed by Huckabee’s non-apology for the AIDS quarantine remarks, finds echoes of Bush.

National Review jumps Huckabee on foreign policy.

Huck (playa) hates Mormons? Drudge started this story by posting the speech - with friends like these…

Romney is “convinced as people take a good hard look at Mike Huckabee’s record, they’ll see this is a guy who is soft on criminals, soft on illegal aliens, but hard on taxpayers. And that’s not what’s going to lead the Republican party to take the White House.”
And Mitt will be the first to air a GOP-on-GOP attack ad, targeting Huckabee on immigration.

On the other hand - is all this Huckabee-bashing too little too late?

No wonder Mitt’s scared. From the WP: “Huckabee may well advance to the nomination finals,” said John Weaver, who was McCain’s chief strategists until they had a parting of the ways last summer, “and in doing so accomplish something neither Rudy or McCain could do: eliminate Romney.”

We already knew South Carolina would be a pitch straight into Huckabee’s wheelhouse, but keep an eye on what is sure to be an emerging story: Huckabee’s Iowa surge is starting to impact the New Hampshire polls.

And last but not least, Frank Rich asks whether Huck could be “The Republican Obama”. This is great press, but I’m more intrigued by Cornel West’s endorsement!
Even Barack can’t claim that.

Dawning the cover of this week’s Newsweek (as we kind of predicted), Mike Huckabee’s last few days with the press have been tumultuous, and as of noon today, everything seems to indicate this week could be worse than last.

A few noteworthy developments:

First there was the Huffington Post’s piece with Murray Waas unearthing new details in the Wayne Dumond scandal. Then on Saturday, the main Drudge headline ran an AP story of a questionnaire response in 1992. Huckabee implied those afflicted with HIV/AIDS should be quarantined. He also called homosexuality “sinful”. On Sunday he defended himself against both, but didn’t apologize. The Newsweek piece is mostly positive, but it raises some new questions about Huckabee’s past dealings with the tobacco industry. And today, the National Review carries a piece by conservative David Sanders discussing Jackson Stephens’ bankrolling a campaign against Huckabee based on his tax record, along with a diatribe on Huckabee’s foreign policy stances.

Where does all this leave Huckabee?

After reading Drudge’s Saturday headline on how “HUCKABEE WANTED TO QUARANTINE AIDS PATIENTS”, I initially thought, Wow — this is pretty radioactive stuff. Yet now I’m not so sure.

First of all, a 2:1 lead in Iowa against Romney will be hard to dent. Then we have to remember only 100,000 republicans in Iowa will show up to caucus. That number is very low. These 100,000 caucus-goers are hard line republicans. I’m still digging around for data to back this claim, but conservatives’ perceptions on HIV/AIDS and homosexuality aren’t too different than what Huckabee was saying in ‘92 (and stands by today). Huckabee could actually gain support based on his comments.  The Newsweek cover / story is a huge plus for Huckabee; anyone who isn’t taking him seriously now is just stupid.  He’s bruised at best, but still poised to win Iowa.

I’m on the edge of my seat over the latest polls in IA, NH and SC — if he gets a bump after his toughest week of press yet, he will be the nominee.

At this point, he has everything to lose.

Murray Waas over at Huffington Post has been on Huckabee’s case this week regarding Wayne Dumond. This will not sink Huckabee. These allegations were addressed during the 2002 governor’s race. The stakes are higher. So is the scrutiny Huckabee will have to overcome. Yet, even with these new revelations, this is an old story.My friend Max Brantley at the Arkansas Times seems to think this may have a bombshell quality to it:

This is powerful stuff. People who were Huckabee’s people essentially say 1) he’s a liar; 2) he knew Dumond was a multiple offender 3) he worked for Dumond’s freedom anyway.

Big.

My suspicion is that the average Iowan GOP caucus-goer (or undecided American voter) isn’t digging deeper than the mainstream media’s Dumond narrative — a narrative Huckabee has already weathered. These new details won’t affect that, but simply confirm what most political observers in Arkansas already knew: While governor of Arkansas, Huckabee made a decision that was at least regrettable and at most a disturbingly callous abuse of power. I think it was the latter, and I’m not attempting to defend Huckabee in any way, but I don’t think it will stop him from getting the nomination.

What do you think? Could Dumond kill Huckabee in Iowa?

UPDATE:

A tipster to the Arkansas Times Blog has spotted Mike Isikoff roaming around downtown Little Rock

Spotted on the streets downtown — Newsweek’s Mike Isikoff, captain of the panty posse during the late great Whitewater Etc. snipe hunt. His presence — and that of other Newsweek writers — indicates a cover story might be in the works. More hype? Or a little something contrarian? We’ll see. Presumably Butch Reeves is now on Mike’s to-see list.

Max beat me to the punch in predicting a Huckabee cover on Time or Newsweek sometime before Christmas.

This project has been a long time coming…

For over a year, I’ve been nonchalantly letting political friends outside of Arkansas know they should “watch out for Huckabee.” Nearly a year later, he is overtaking Mitt Romney in some polls and maintains momentum in New Hampshire.

This blog will examine the rise of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, explore his past, and provide analysis of day-to-day news as it relates to his presidential campaign.

While I’m not here to grind an axe, I readily admit I’m a Democrat from Arkansas who has never been on the same team with Huckabee. That said, I can’t deny some guilty pleasure in watching a native Arkansan defy the odds.