Huckabee Watch

Bold predictions have paid off in the past here, but the last major one — that Huckabee would place 2nd in New Hampshire — seems pretty silly in retrospect. That said, Huckabee was still a big winner in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is damaged goods, and Huckabee gets to take on McCain in a southern state where McCain has had trouble before.

Today brought news of Thompson becoming very aggressive against Huckabee. Having performed poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, this is Thompson’s last chance. Huckabee has engaged Thompson, which could potentially sink them both if McCain can seize the “higher ground” amidst a Thompson/Huckabee spat.

During this week’s republican debate in Iowa, Mitt Romney introduced an intriguing model:

We’re not going to get the White House nor strengthen America unless we can pull together the coalition of conservatives and conservative thought that has made us successful as a party. And that’s social conservatives. It’s also economic conservatives. And foreign policy and defense conservatives.

Those three together form the three legs of the Republican stool that allowed Ronald Reagan to get elected and allowed our party to have strength over the last several decades.

Adopting Romney’s construction, we have three distinct stakeholders participating in the Republican nomination: Social conservatives, Economic conservatives, and Defense conservatives.

Clearly, Huckabee is enjoying strong support from the social conservative “leg” of Romney’s stool. He has either achieved — or is on his way to achieving — a plurality in every poll taken about the GOP nomination; meanwhile, his four other “viable” (McCain, Thompson, Romney, Giuliani) opponents have lost grip on the social conservative leg and are jockeying for the other two legs.

Romney’s model might suggest a balance of ideological influence by the three distinct stakeholders under the “Conservative” umbrella, but Huckabee reminds us that when it comes to electoral influence, social conservatives make Romney’s stool uncomfortably wobbly for the Defense/Economic conservatives.

The Defense/Economic conservatives have always had more influence and bigger megaphones. They have well-funded, palatial think tanks (with a quota of cubicles for their kooky cousins, the social conservatives), book publishing companies, newspapers, and magazines. They have Rupert Murdock on speed dial.

None of that is important to Huckabee, though. He’s got the numbers.

We’re seeing this paradox playing out right now: as the press on Huckabee gets louder and nastier (mostly from the Right), Huckabee’s poll numbers go higher and higher. This phenomenon (worse press = better numbers) will become even more incongruous over the next two weeks, and it will pave Huckabee’s way to becoming the republican nominee.

Dawning the cover of this week’s Newsweek (as we kind of predicted), Mike Huckabee’s last few days with the press have been tumultuous, and as of noon today, everything seems to indicate this week could be worse than last.

A few noteworthy developments:

First there was the Huffington Post’s piece with Murray Waas unearthing new details in the Wayne Dumond scandal. Then on Saturday, the main Drudge headline ran an AP story of a questionnaire response in 1992. Huckabee implied those afflicted with HIV/AIDS should be quarantined. He also called homosexuality “sinful”. On Sunday he defended himself against both, but didn’t apologize. The Newsweek piece is mostly positive, but it raises some new questions about Huckabee’s past dealings with the tobacco industry. And today, the National Review carries a piece by conservative David Sanders discussing Jackson Stephens’ bankrolling a campaign against Huckabee based on his tax record, along with a diatribe on Huckabee’s foreign policy stances.

Where does all this leave Huckabee?

After reading Drudge’s Saturday headline on how “HUCKABEE WANTED TO QUARANTINE AIDS PATIENTS”, I initially thought, Wow — this is pretty radioactive stuff. Yet now I’m not so sure.

First of all, a 2:1 lead in Iowa against Romney will be hard to dent. Then we have to remember only 100,000 republicans in Iowa will show up to caucus. That number is very low. These 100,000 caucus-goers are hard line republicans. I’m still digging around for data to back this claim, but conservatives’ perceptions on HIV/AIDS and homosexuality aren’t too different than what Huckabee was saying in ‘92 (and stands by today). Huckabee could actually gain support based on his comments.  The Newsweek cover / story is a huge plus for Huckabee; anyone who isn’t taking him seriously now is just stupid.  He’s bruised at best, but still poised to win Iowa.

I’m on the edge of my seat over the latest polls in IA, NH and SC — if he gets a bump after his toughest week of press yet, he will be the nominee.

At this point, he has everything to lose.

This project has been a long time coming…

For over a year, I’ve been nonchalantly letting political friends outside of Arkansas know they should “watch out for Huckabee.” Nearly a year later, he is overtaking Mitt Romney in some polls and maintains momentum in New Hampshire.

This blog will examine the rise of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, explore his past, and provide analysis of day-to-day news as it relates to his presidential campaign.

While I’m not here to grind an axe, I readily admit I’m a Democrat from Arkansas who has never been on the same team with Huckabee. That said, I can’t deny some guilty pleasure in watching a native Arkansan defy the odds.